It seems we cannot go a week without someone predicting another U.S. civil war. If U.S. federalism fails, should we not follow Jefferson's mandate and seek "to dissolve the political bands" which have connected us with one another peacefully?
In his excellent book "American Nations", author Colin Woodward posits that the United States, rather than being "one nation under God", has always been a conglomeration of eleven separate nations; each with their own culture and heritage; and each vying for the heart and soul of the collective.
His thesis has considerable merit, and I encourage all to read his excellent work. But what of today? What of the"culture wars" that pit social democrats (lower case"d") against limited government republicans (lower case"r") that is described in so many ways from factionalism to regionalism, and everything in between.
During our last civil war, regionalism obviously played a very large part in the conflict. Modern readers might blanch at the thought, but listening to (and witnessing daily) the complaints and unilateral actions of California, it is eerily reminiscent of the the south in the 1850s (particularly South Carolina) who sought to preserve their"unique way of life" and had an oversized perception of their economic worth to the nation as a whole. And this civil disobedience and"exceptionalism" extends beyond just California. Northward from the Golden State, Oregon and Washington share these core beliefs. In fact, they have long had a collective name for it-- Cascadia.
So let's say we allowed California, Oregon and Washington to peacefully secede from the union and form what I have chosen to call the Commonwealth of Cascadia. I say "commonwealth" because I feel they would abandon a divided powers republican form of government in favor of a Westminster style democracy. How would this affect the rest of the United States?
Other than loosing the Pacific ports, not so much as you might think. In fact, whereas Mr. Woodward discovered eleven American nations, I find five viable countries that could peacefully and successfully be established on the North American continent, that may very well ease the regional and political tensions that have aggravated our republic from the beginning. I will endeavor to introduce each from west to east, including their current aggregate contribution to the collective Gross National Product (GNP) of the current United States based on the Fourth Quarter figures of 2019 as demonstrated in the illustration below. Please note, due to rounding and re-appropriation of some territory, the percentages do not sum to 100%.
The Commonwealth of Cascadia: Westminster Style Social Democracy comprised of California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, and the U.S. Pacific territorial possessions, redesigned into parliamentary constituencies by county: Capital: San Francisco; Major Ports: Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland, Honolulu; Former contribution to U.S. GNP: 20.6% (Ranking: fifth of five).
The New Republic of Texas: Federal Republic of Fifteen Sovereign States: Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Alaska: Capital: Austin; Major Ports: Port of Texas City (Houston and Galveston), Corpus Christi, Beaumont, Port Arthur, Anchorage; Former contribution to U.S. GNP: 24.8% (Ranking: second of five).
Commonwealth of the Great Lakes States: Westminster Style Social Democracy comprised of 10 semi-federalized states: Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York State: Capital: Chicago; Major Ports: Chicago, Twin Ports, Milwaukee, Erie, Pittsburgh, Buffalo; Former contribution to U.S. GNP: 24.3% (Ranking: third of five).
The Confederate States of America: Limited Federal Republic of 11 confederated sovereign states: Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia: Capital: Atlanta; Major Ports: New Orleans, Mobile, Pensacola, Tampa, Miami, Port Everglades, Charleston, Wilmington; Former contribution to U.S. GNP: 23.1% (Ranking: fourth of five).
The United States of America: Westminster Style Social Democracy comprised of 10 semi-federalized states and the UNESCO World Heritage site of Washington, D.C.: Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Greater New York City, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, Puerto Rico*: Capital: New York City; Major Ports: Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore; Former contribution to U.S. GNP: 26.1% (Ranking: first of five).
Now some of the assessments made above are intentionally flippant, but the underlying reality still stands: The Commonwealth of California would rank fifth economically if the nation were divided as described. It would also have severe problems with water and electrical service, since California in particular, is dependent upon other states to provide both.
It is perhaps no surprise that the east coast states still hold the lion's share of impact; a full percentage point above their next competitor, The Republic of Texas. But there is no doubt that the Republic of Texas would be a major powerhouse on the continent, especially considering its ability to promote exceptional relations with Latin America and the historic ties it would share with its next door neighbor, The Confederate States of America.
The intention of all this is not to promote dis-union. However, at some point the United States as we know it, will become utterly intolerable to one half of the population. We should use good sense and prudence to avoid the path that led this country into civil war. Civilized states can divvy up debt (and assets), disband militaries, and form trade agreements. Civilized nations can submit to binding arbitration, and allow for safe passage of citizens between new states and new countries. Civilized nations can resolve their differences without bloodshed and vigilantism.
We may read once a week that another civil war is imminent (if not unavoidable) but that does not mean we have to let it become a self-fulfilling prophesy, or an unavoidable tragedy. The choice is up to us; we, the civilized people.
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