Although the Trump campaign limps along filing suits and making waves, the reality of a Biden presidency is upon us. Why he has more worry about that the right.
On September 29, 2020 I wrote an essay entitled The Politics of Magical Thinking about the aggravation I experience every election year when politicians whip up campaigns based on specious if not downright impossible platform planks.
Of course this election year was a bonanza of magical thinking for Mr. Biden, and why not, every pundit on the planet predicted he would sweep into the White House with the Senate in tow, a larger majority in the house, and a landslide victory mandate - none of which materialized. So what does that leave him? Not much. And that will wear on the minds of his constituency far faster than it will on the minds of his opponents.
Let's take Covid-19 as an example. Mr. Trump's fast-tracked vaccine aside, Mr. Biden made Covid-19 and its handling by the federal government a HUGE (to quote the former president) issue in the campaign. This of course is Politics of Magical Thinking because in reality, he can do not one iota more or less than Mr. Trump has done. Like most politicians, Mr. Biden was quick to set-up a commission (Read: professional scapegoat committee) to review data and advise him on Covid-19, but what after that? Unless they advise him to do exactly what we are doing, he is in a very tight corner. National mask mandate? Unconstitutional. Mandatory vaccination? Unconstitutional. National lock-down? Unconstitutional.
Now if I were president Biden, I would send the Vice President-elect out to see every state governor during the transition and ask them what they want or need. This would be more productive and better politics than a "commission." In the spirit of full disclosure, I feel the founders made a mistake when they didn't give the Vice President a real job. Since she is the President of the Senate, and the Senate is the states' representation in congress, it makes sense to me that the VP's job should have always been focused on liaising with the governors. But that's an essay for another day.
However, involving the governors even before the inauguration would go a long way toward ameliorating various "top-down" charges leveled against the president before they could even be made. There is nothing in Mr. Biden's experience or temperament that would suggest that as a potential course of action, nor would it it be appreciated by the next millstone around his neck, the left-wing of his party.
As far as the Politics of Magical Thinking goes, no well is quite so deep as the current left. One can hardly imagine a Biden cabinet without Bernie Sanders in it to keep the tiller pulled as far to port as Captain Joe can stand. I would also expect to see a few others plucked from the primary debate stage, my personal wish list including Mayor Buttigieg and Andrew Yang, so there would be a couple of pragmatic voices in the president's ear; but I am not holding my breath. Same with any establishment Republicans which would at least lend a veneer of bi-partisanship to the government.
But alas, by not sweeping the country with a mythical "blue wave" Joe Biden the conciliator, Joe Biden the deal-maker, Joe Biden the statesman, will likely be Joe Biden the hamstrung. The "squad" has already spoken. Whereas they were willing to hold their nose one more time to give the moderates their due to unseat President Trump, the clock has run out on moderation in their estimation, and as much as I would hate to say it (and I really do hate to say it) they have a point. When it comes to urban areas, the unquestioned core of the Democrat's base, the young leftists were the ones who got the votes. Current demographic calculations work in their favor too, as the next two acceding generations overwhelmingly support social democracy. In a congressional equivalent of "okay Boomer!" we can imagine pressure will be hard and heavy on both the Speaker of the House and the President to affect sweeping change.
Of course, there is no way the Speaker of the House or the President can affect any change (sweeping or not) with a hostile senate and a strict constructionist court. And so the Politics of Magical Thinking turns into yet another cul-de-sac; another dead-end; another embittered liberal voter.
So what will Mr. Biden's presidency look like? Well, very Faustian I'm afraid. Three times will not be a charm for Mr. Biden. Having sold his soul to not one but several devils to acquire the power that radiates from behind the Resolute Desk, he will find he has very little power at his disposal and precious little to be resolute about. He will peck at foreign affairs, but without a friendly senate, that will leave him as friendless as Woodrow Wilson. He'll pontificate from his bully pulpit, but with half a country against him, and a third of his own party right behind them, he will only reach a tiny choir. He will draft and sign executive orders; paper the federal bureaucracy with them I have no doubt; but they will be as fleeting as his presidency, and when the next Republican takes office, they will be whisked away like the notepads and souvenir pens.
No, there is nowhere left to go; there no where left to hide. The presidency of Joe Biden will be the capstone of his career, and, regrettably, will be just as mediocre and mundane as the public service career monolith that stands below it.
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